Bitcoin Plunges Below $95K AI Crash & ETF Exodus Shake Markets

The cryptocurrency market experienced significant turbulence this week as Bitcoin price plummeted below the critical $95,000 threshold, marking its lowest level since May 2025. This dramatic decline represents a nearly 25% correction from the digital asset’s all-time high of approximately $126,000 reached just last month in October. The convergence of multiple bearish factors, including growing concerns about an artificial intelligence market bubble, massive Bitcoin ETF outflows, and shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, has created what analysts are calling a “perfect storm” for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

As institutional investors reassess their risk exposure and long-term holders engage in unprecedented profit-taking, the broader implications of this downturn extend far beyond Bitcoin itself. The correlation between cryptocurrency markets and traditional tech stocks has never been more apparent, with both asset classes suffering simultaneous selloffs that have left investors questioning the sustainability of recent valuations.

Bitcoin’s Sharp Decline Below $95,000

The Bitcoin price action on Friday, November 14, 2025, saw the cryptocurrency briefly touch $94,147, representing its weakest performance in approximately six months. This decline caps a brutal week where Bitcoin shed nearly 9% of its value, continuing a four-day losing streak that has erased most of the gains accumulated throughout 2025. At the year’s end in 2024, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $93,714, meaning the cryptocurrency is dangerously close to wiping out all its annual gains despite the euphoria that surrounded its record-breaking October rally.

The magnitude of this correction has caught many investors off guard, particularly those who entered positions during Bitcoin’s climb above $100,000. Market volatility has intensified dramatically, with the cryptocurrency displaying the kind of price swings typically associated with broader market capitulation events rather than normal mid-cycle corrections.

Technical Analysis and Support Levels

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken through several critical support levels that traders had been monitoring closely. The cryptocurrency fell below its 200-day moving average, a widely watched indicator that often signals longer-term trend reversals. Additionally, key Fibonacci retracement levels around $97,000 have been decisively breached, opening the door for further downside exploration toward the $92,000 to $74,000 range that some bearish analysts have identified as potential targets.

However, it’s worth noting that according to JPMorgan analysis, Bitcoin’s current estimated production cost sits around $94,000, which has historically acted as a strong price floor. The rising network difficulty has pushed these mining costs higher, keeping Bitcoin’s price-to-cost ratio near historical lows. This technical factor may provide some support if selling pressure begins to moderate.

The AI Market Crash Connection Tech Stocks Drag Down Bitcoin

One of the primary catalysts behind Bitcoin’s recent weakness has been the broader selloff in technology stocks, particularly those related to artificial intelligence development. The cryptocurrency has demonstrated an increasingly tight correlation with tech-heavy indices like the NASDAQ, and this relationship has proven particularly painful during the current downturn.

Growing AI Bubble Concerns

Investors have become increasingly anxious about the sustainability of AI company valuations, with many drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. Major tech giants have committed hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure development, including data centers, specialized chips, and research facilities. While these investments have driven substantial stock price appreciation, questions are mounting about whether the returns will justify the astronomical capital expenditures.

Concerns over rising investments in artificial intelligence initiatives by tech companies have led to broader market instability, causing both stock prices and crypto assets like Bitcoin to fall. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Meta have faced increased scrutiny over their AI spending plans, leading to weakness in their share prices that has rippled across the entire technology sector.

The Contagion Effect on Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream financial markets means it no longer operates in isolation from broader economic trends. As institutional investors have poured capital into cryptocurrency through various vehicles like ETFs, the digital asset has become increasingly susceptible to the same risk-on, risk-off dynamics that affect traditional equities. When tech stocks fall amid AI valuation concerns, Bitcoin tends to follow suit as investors reduce exposure to all speculative growth assets.

Several tech stocks are falling this week amid a resurfacing of concerns over Silicon Valley giants’ astronomical spending on AI initiatives, creating a negative feedback loop that has weighed heavily on cryptocurrency prices. Crypto-linked stocks such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), Coinbase, and various Bitcoin mining companies have also experienced significant declines, with some shedding between 10% to 20% of their value during this turbulent period.

Record ETF Outflows Intensify Selling Pressure

Perhaps the most alarming development for Bitcoin bulls has been the unprecedented exodus of capital from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. On Thursday alone, approximately $870 million was withdrawn – the second-largest daily outflow since these instruments were launched. Over the past month, Bitcoin ETF outflows have totaled approximately $3.1 billion, representing a significant reversal from the strong inflows that characterized much of 2024.

The ETF Exodus

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 was heralded as a watershed moment for cryptocurrency adoption, providing traditional investors with a regulated, familiar vehicle for gaining exposure to digital assets. Throughout most of 2024 and early 2025, these products experienced strong demand, with major issuers like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) accumulating billions in assets under management.

However, the recent wave of institutional selling suggests that some of this capital was more speculative than committed long-term investment. As Bitcoin’s price began to weaken and concerns about broader market conditions intensified, ETF investors moved quickly to reduce exposure, creating additional downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price.

The Broader Context of ETF Performance

Despite the recent outflows, it’s important to maintain perspective on the ETF market’s overall trajectory. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs still hold over $24 billion in cumulative net inflows since their inception, and they currently control approximately 7% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. While the recent selling is significant, it represents a correction within an otherwise successful product launch rather than a wholesale rejection of the investment thesis.

Even with the growing role of ETFs, the flows simply aren’t large enough to explain the price action. Spot bitcoin ETFs hold roughly 7% of bitcoin’s market cap and most trading still happens elsewhere. This suggests that while ETF outflows contribute to selling pressure, they’re not the sole driver of Bitcoin’s price decline.

Federal Reserve Policy Shifts Add to Market Uncertainty

Beyond the AI bubble concerns and ETF outflows, changing expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy have significantly impacted cryptocurrency markets. Lower interest rates typically benefit Bitcoin and other risk assets by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments and increasing liquidity in financial markets. Conversely, higher rates or expectations of sustained elevated rates tend to pressure these assets.

Diminishing Rate Cut Expectations

At the Fed’s late-October meeting, chair Jerome Powell cautioned that another rate cut in December was not a foregone conclusion. This shift in tone has had profound implications for market positioning. Earlier in November, traders were pricing in a near-certain 97% probability of a rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting. However, that expectation has plummeted to approximately 50% or lower, representing a dramatic reassessment of the central bank’s likely policy path.

The Government Shutdown’s Economic Data Impact

Adding to the uncertainty, the unprecedented 43-day U.S. government shutdown that lasted from October 1 until November 13, 2025, disrupted the normal flow of economic data. The suspension of critical economic data, such as inflation and jobs reports, has left markets with little guidance on the direction of monetary policy. This information vacuum has made it more difficult for investors to gauge whether the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting cycle or adopt a more hawkish stance.

The resumption of government operations should eventually restore the flow of economic data, but the backlog of reports and delayed statistical releases may continue to create uncertainty in the near term.

Long-Term Holders Engage in Historic Profit-Taking

Another significant factor contributing to Bitcoin’s price weakness has been aggressive selling by long-term holders—investors who have held their Bitcoin for extended periods, typically defined as more than 155 days. Long-term holders have sold an estimated 815,000 BTC in the past 30 days— the largest such exodus since early 2024. This represents a substantial volume of selling that has overwhelmed demand from new entrants and institutional buyers.

Long-Term Holder Behavior

According to research from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, this selling behavior doesn’t necessarily indicate panic or a loss of faith in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Instead, it reflects typical profit-taking activity that occurs during bull market cycles. After holding through previous bear markets and being rewarded with significant gains, these investors are naturally inclined to realize some profits when prices reach new all-time highs.

The data shows that monthly spending by long-term holders has risen from approximately 12,000 BTC per day in July to about 26,000 BTC daily by November—a pattern consistent with normal bull market distribution rather than a wholesale exit from the market. Researchers at Bitfinex noted that the drawdown from October’s peak is tracking closely with typical mid-cycle retracements, matching the roughly 22% pullbacks seen throughout the 2023–2025 bull market.

The Tax Consideration Factor

Some analysts believe that year-end tax planning may be contributing to the selling pressure, particularly among U.S.-based investors. With the ability to offset capital gains through strategic loss harvesting or the desire to lock in profits at known tax rates before potential policy changes, sophisticated investors may be timing sales to optimize their tax positions.

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Plunges Why BTC Fell Below $100,000

Liquidity Stress and Market Depth Concerns

Beyond the headline factors of AI concerns, ETF outflows, and policy uncertainty, the Bitcoin market is also grappling with declining market liquidity. Market depth – the ability of the market to absorb large orders without significant price movements – has dropped by around 30% compared to peak levels earlier this year. This reduction in liquidity means that even moderate-sized trades can now trigger outsized price movements, exacerbating volatility and creating opportunities for rapid price dislocations.

Leveraged Position Liquidations

The cryptocurrency derivatives market has experienced significant turmoil, with approximately $1.3 billion in leveraged positions liquidated over a 24-hour period during the worst of the selloff. These forced liquidations create additional selling pressure as margin calls trigger automatic position closures, pushing prices lower in a self-reinforcing cycle that accelerates market declines.

Futures funding rates have turned negative, reflecting the dominance of bearish sentiment among derivatives traders. Options traders have rushed to purchase protective put options ahead of major expiry events, further reinforcing the bearish momentum that has gripped the market.

The Path Forward Recovery Scenarios and Potential Catalysts

While the current market environment appears challenging, several factors could potentially support a Bitcoin price recovery in the coming weeks and months. Understanding these potential catalysts is crucial for investors trying to navigate the current volatility.

Historical Cycle Patterns

Researchers at Bitfinex noted that even at the $100,000 level, approximately 72 percent of the total BTC supply remains in profit. This high percentage of profitable holders suggests that the current correction hasn’t fundamentally damaged the bull market structure. Historical analysis shows that Bitcoin has experienced similar mid-cycle retracements during previous bull runs, typically ranging from 20% to 30% from local peaks.

If Bitcoin follows the patterns established in previous cycles, the current weakness could represent a healthy consolidation before the next leg higher. However, past performance is never a guarantee of future results, and the unique macroeconomic circumstances of 2025 may create different dynamics than those observed in earlier cycles.

Government Reopening and Data Clarity

The reopening of the U.S. government after its record 43-day shutdown should gradually restore clarity to economic data releases. As inflation reports, employment figures, and other key statistics become available, markets will have better information to assess the Federal Reserve’s likely policy path. If this data suggests continued progress on inflation without severe economic weakness, it could support renewed risk-taking across asset classes, including cryptocurrency.

Institutional Adoption Continues

Despite the recent ETF outflows, the broader trend toward institutional cryptocurrency adoption remains intact. Major financial institutions continue to build out cryptocurrency trading desks, custody solutions, and product offerings. The spot Bitcoin ETF market, despite its recent challenges, still represents a major structural improvement in crypto market infrastructure that should support long-term growth.

Production Cost Support

The JPMorgan analysis pointing to Bitcoin’s production cost around $94,000 provides some technical support for the idea that further downside may be limited. If miners become unwilling to sell below their cost of production and investor demand stabilizes, this level could serve as an effective floor for the cryptocurrency’s price.

Market Sentiment and the Fear & Greed Index

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a widely followed measure of investor sentiment, has plunged into “extreme fear” territory. According to Coinglass data, there were over $1.1 billion in outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the past two days. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a common indicator of market sentiment, is registering extreme fear. Historically, periods of extreme fear have often represented opportune buying moments for contrarian investors, as excessive pessimism can create conditions for sharp rebounds when sentiment eventually shifts.

However, relying solely on sentiment indicators can be dangerous, particularly when fundamental factors like policy uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds remain unresolved. The extreme fear reading should be viewed as one data point among many rather than a definitive buy signal.

Comparing Bitcoin’s Current Situation to Previous Corrections

To properly contextualize Bitcoin’s current price action, it’s helpful to examine how the cryptocurrency has behaved during previous market corrections: Bitcoin topped at approximately $67,000 before falling to around $35,000, representing a nearly 50% decline. The cryptocurrency eventually recovered and surpassed this previous high. Bitcoin broke above $100,000 for the first time, reaching $106,000 before falling to $76,000—a roughly 30% correction. The subsequent recovery led to new all-time highs above $126,000.

The current correction from $126,000 to below $95,000 represents approximately a 25% decline, which sits comfortably within the range of typical Bitcoin pullbacks during bull market conditions. Whether this correction will deepen into a more severe downturn or represent another buying opportunity depends largely on how the various headwinds discussed above evolve in the coming weeks.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s dramatic decline below $95,000 represents a confluence of challenging factors that have created significant uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets. The combination of AI bubble concerns weighing on tech stocks, record Bitcoin ETF outflows signaling institutional caution, shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, and aggressive profit-taking by long-term holders has overwhelmed bullish momentum and pushed the digital asset to six-month lows.

However, it’s crucial to maintain perspective during periods of market stress. Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout its history, recovering from numerous corrections that appeared catastrophic at the time. The cryptocurrency’s fundamental value proposition—as a decentralized, scarce digital asset with global accessibility—remains unchanged despite short-term price volatility.

For investors, the current environment demands careful risk management and a clear understanding of individual investment goals and time horizons. Those with longer time horizons and conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential may view the current weakness as an opportunity to accumulate at more favorable prices. Conversely, investors who entered positions at higher levels may need to reassess their risk tolerance and positioning in light of continued uncertainty.

As markets digest the implications of AI spending concerns, ETF flows stabilize, and clarity emerges around Federal Reserve policy, Bitcoin’s price action will provide important signals about the strength of the underlying bull market structure. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this correction represents a temporary setback or the beginning of a more sustained period of weakness.

The cryptocurrency market’s volatility serves as a reminder that digital assets remain speculative investments subject to rapid price swings. Understanding the multiple factors driving market movements—from macroeconomic policy to technological trends to market microstructure issues like liquidity—is essential for anyone participating in this evolving asset class.

FAQs

Q: Why did Bitcoin drop below $95,000 in November 2025?

Bitcoin’s decline below $95,000 resulted from a combination of factors including growing concerns about an AI market bubble affecting tech stocks, record ETF outflows of approximately $870 million in a single day, reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders who sold an estimated 815,000 BTC over 30 days.

Q: How much has Bitcoin fallen from its all-time high?

Bitcoin has declined approximately 25% from its all-time high of around $126,000 reached in October 2025. The cryptocurrency briefly touched $94,147 on November 14, representing a correction of roughly $31,000 from the peak. This pullback has erased most of Bitcoin’s gains for 2025, bringing it close to its year-end 2024 price of approximately $93,714.

Q: Are Bitcoin ETF outflows a sign that institutional investors are abandoning crypto?

While the recent ETF outflows of over $3.1 billion in the past month are significant, they don’t necessarily signal a wholesale abandonment of cryptocurrency by institutions. Despite these outflows, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs still hold over $24 billion in cumulative net inflows since their January 2024 launch. The outflows likely reflect short-term risk management and portfolio rebalancing rather than a fundamental rejection of Bitcoin as an asset class.

Q: Could Bitcoin fall further from current levels?

Further downside is possible, though several factors may provide support. JPMorgan analysts estimate Bitcoin’s production cost at around $94,000, which historically has acted as a price floor. Technical analysts have identified potential support zones between $92,000 and $74,000 if selling pressure intensifies. However, if macroeconomic conditions stabilize and sentiment improves, Bitcoin could also rebound from current levels.

Q: How does the AI market crash affect Bitcoin prices?

The AI market concerns affect Bitcoin primarily through the correlation between cryptocurrency and tech stocks. As institutional investors have increased their exposure to both asset classes, they tend to reduce risk simultaneously when concerns emerge. The massive spending on AI infrastructure by tech giants has raised questions about return on investment, leading to selloffs in tech stocks.