Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bitcoin’s (BTC) “flash crash” in early August was devastating for crypto traders; that much is certain. Bitcoin had a 15% decline in value in only one day. Some investors were scared that Bitcoin was about to fall below $50,000. Some people even thought the much anticipated Bitcoin rise would have ended before it had even begun.
I believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the year 2024’s end. This implies that Bitcoin’s price will almost quadruple soon. I am well aware that the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East has the potential to derail any enthusiasm for risky assets like Bitcoin completely. However, Bitcoin can still reach $100,000 in a reasonable amount of time.
Bitcoin déjà vu
The Bitcoin halving that happened on April 19 is something you shouldn’t overlook. A few months ago, investors were interested in this event because of its historical significance for Bitcoin’s price. There have been three prior halving cycles in which the price of Bitcoin surged. This year, many people were banking on the same thing happening.
However, they failed to consider that the effect of the Bitcoin halving will not be noticeable for some time. That is because the market needs some time to adjust to the altered supply growth rate caused by the halving, which alters the rate of new Bitcoin creation. Consider the mechanics of monetary policy: changes to the economy are not immediately felt due to changes in interest rates.
Viewing a trading chart from the prior Bitcoin halving on May 11, 2020, will clarify my point. There was a day when the price of Bitcoin was $8,618. The price hovered around $10,000 for several months, giving investors hope for a possible breakout. The summer was when Bitcoin’s price took off, reaching the $12,000 mark. The market bottomed out at the summer’s close, and Bitcoin was trading near $10,000 once again.
However, Bitcoin’s value skyrocketed as the fall progressed and the 2020 presidential election drew near. To summarize, Bitcoin’s end-of-year price of $28,994 was more than twice its summer high. In December, we experienced an especially impressive increase of 48%. After that, 2021 was a banner year for Bitcoin.
Does that ring a bell? It feels like old times, as Yogi Berra, a great Yankees baseball player, would put it. It would appear that Bitcoin is repeating its four-year trend. A company’s success in the past is in no way indicative of its future success. Remember that the halving of Bitcoin’s supply has historically been quite predictive and that a strong economic element (the reduction in the increase of Bitcoin’s supply) may be to blame for this occurrence.
Just how likely is $100,000?
The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024 can be estimated using several indicators. The most popular choice is using a crypto prediction market like Polymarket, where traders are making real-world wagers on the likelihood of certain outcomes. Before the Bitcoin flash crash in early August, speculators predicted that Bitcoin might reach $100,000 by year’s end of 2024 at a rate of 42%. That proportion dropped to 20% in a week.
Key Data Points
Using options is another alternative. I’m referring to the market for Bitcoin options. There, actual traders are betting on the future value of Bitcoin by purchasing Bitcoin through options. Currently, $100,000 strike options that expire in late December are among the most sought-after call options. This means that options traders are still hoping that Bitcoin’s price can reach $100,000 in the coming months.
The crypto market is experiencing mixed signals, making it difficult to identify individual trends. If you’re considering investing in Bitcoin during an election year, it’s important to have a long-term view and not react to every market movement. Believe me when I say there will be no shortage of surprises between now and December 31st, and you will get yourself twisted trying to decipher what they imply for Bitcoin.
Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:
Just now, the team of analysts at Motley Fool Stock Advisor has determined what they consider to be the top ten stocks that investors should purchase right away. Bitcoin was not one of those things. There is a possibility that the ten selected equities would generate enormous returns in the years to come.
