Bitcoin Rises on Trump Victory. Following the terrible assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, market watchers are frantically trying to make sense of the meteoric rise in Bitcoin and crypto prices. Following what appeared to be an attempt on the life of the ex-president during a campaign rally on July 13, leaders of the two main US political parties, along with America’s Western allies and others, conveyed shock and relief.
Even though Bitcoin’s price of $64,782 skyrocketed in the minutes following the incident, a new crypto story was beginning to emerge by July 15. By 11:30 pm UTC on July 15, the price of Bitcoin had climbed to $64,671, a 5.8% increase from the previous day and a 14.2% increase for the week. Other digital currencies soon followed it. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is $63,664, down slightly from its all-time high of over $65,000.
According to Austin Campbell, creator and managing partner of Zero Knowledge Consulting and adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of Business, “Historically, attempted assassinations have led to an uptick in support for candidates.”
“Captured in an iconic photograph even at the moment” was the crucial moment after shots were fired at approximately 6:11 pm local time on July 12, when presidential candidate Trump emerged “defiant” from a crowd of secret service officers, according to Campbell’s recounting of the events.
By “being able to project strength,” the Republican presidential nominee improved his prospects of regaining the office. A more crypto-friendly and Bitcoin-friendly candidate is Trump, according to Campbell. Consequently, the market’s expectation that Trump’s election odds increase dramatically would explain the [BTC price] surge.
Assassination Attempts on US Presidents
It is rare for assassination plots to target sitting or former presidents of the United States. Nearly forty years have passed since the last one, an assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan in 1981. It was quite unusual, brutal, and a huge hit to the political system.
Bitcoin Rises on Trump Victory: Perhaps the current events have once again shown the value of Bitcoin during times of distress. The world’s stock markets were shaky in March 2023 when Silicon Valley Bank went under, the second biggest bank failure in the United States’ history. Bitcoin, however, rose against all odds.
It’s All About Election Prospects
“I believe BTC is a safe-haven asset,” said David Tawil, co-founder and president of ProChain Capital. However, Tawil does not believe that was the primary cause of the July 15 rise in Bitcoin prices.
According to Tawil, “the overwhelming narrative is now that he is more likely to be elected,” which is great news for cryptocurrency. If not for crypto-skeptical Democratic Party heavyweights like Senator Elizabeth Warren, President Joe Biden, and Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, he thinks it will cause a “full recasting of crypto” in the US to occur sooner.
Hester Pierce is an SEC commissioner who supports cryptocurrencies; Tawil and others in the crypto sector believe that she will succeed Gensler as chair of the agency when a new government takes office. From now until the election on November 5th, he thinks the price of cryptocurrencies will rise sharply.
According to Winston Ma, co-founder of Dragon AI and adjunct law professor at New York University, US election function analysis can better explain the present upswing. This explanation is preferable to global uncertainty or anything else.
“The cryptocurrency community likely associates Trump and Republicans with ‘ more business-friendly’ crypto legislation and regulation,” he said, continuing, “while geopolitics is a second-degree derivative.” According to him, US lawmaking takes precedence.
Last but not least, Trump has pledged to be known as the “crypto president,” his campaign has started taking bitcoin donations, which is unprecedented for a major US political party. Later this month, Trump will give a speech at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
A Boost in Crypto Prediction Markets
From afar, it doesn’t appear that much different. “The failed assassination of Trump is directly correlated to the rise [in the price of Bitcoin],” said Justin d’Anethan of Keyrock, a cryptocurrency market maker in Hong Kong.
Bitcoin Rises on Trump Victory: D’Anethan pointed out that Trump’s chances of regaining the presidency “shot up” on prediction markets following the incident. One example is the political betting site PredictIt, whose contracts for a Trump election victory went up in price from $0.60 on July 12 to 0.70 cents on July 16. On the other hand, Biden contracts were selling for 0.26 cents on July 16.
D’Anethan elaborated, saying, “I suspect people think two steps ahead and assume that a Republican victory will be positive for market and business dynamics, and so lift risk assets, including crypto.” His reasoning was based on this assumption.
Just so you know, following the assassination attempt, the stock prices of several companies in the gun and ammunition industry, including Smith & Wesson Brands, Coinbase, and Marathon Digital, rose. According to Reuters, Trump’s majority-owned media and technology group, Trump Media and Technology Group, also experienced a 30% jump in stock price.
But, especially in a politically divided America, not everything can be rationally explained. Vitali Dervoed, co-founder and CEO of on-chain decentralized exchange Spark, said, “For a second, markets got shocked by this black swan event.” “What if there’s no Trump anymore?'” he continued, adding, “We all, for a moment, thought.”
He continued that this would be a “disaster” for many in the cryptocurrency community. “I won’t sugarcoat it: I have faith in [Vice President] Kamala Harris’s intelligence to craft a robust crypto policy…” The crypto community was shocked by this event, so the panicking graphs appeared,” Dervoed remarked.
